Crushing the Curve
What data helps inform when to consider expanding our "bubbles?"
(See The Bubble Concept for explanation)
See the post “The Bubble Concept” about a rigorous approach to social distancing relevant to different levels of community transmission of the virus.
What is the best data to help inform when to expand our social bubbles and even consider going to restaurants and other public venues? (This data is not the only consideration but serves as a helpful marker.)
What is the best data to help inform when to expand our social bubbles and even consider going to restaurants and other public venues? (This data is not the only consideration but serves as a helpful marker.)
I have come to believe the best data to use is the daily case rate graphically displayed—usually with data points representing a rolling average of 7 to 10 days. The goal is to be steadily near zero for 14 days. While still having a range of error, getting near zero seems much more solid than following a “declining” rate with a probable much larger range of error. This virus is very contagious and anything beyond a small number of cases is of concern.
This goal of zero or near zero cases over two weeks is called Crushing the Curve which you can read more about at endcoronavirus.org. The source is Yaneer Bar-Yam who is an expert on pandemics and other complex systems and advises the WHO Global Outbreak and Alert Response Network on Ebola eradication. He was the co-author of a January paper with Nassim Nicholas Taleb (of Black Swan fame) which predicted what is happening now—the rapid spread of coronavirus—and recommended lockdowns for five weeks to drive daily case rates to zero.
Here is Bar-Yam’s most recent editorial from May 12 which I strongly recommend: Don't Let Governors Fool You About Reopening.
Crushing the Curve goes beyond just “flattening the curve” which is what most states are doing now. The latter approach leaves lingering higher case rates for many months. And this means that we can be assured there is more virus out there than is picked up in the data and that the risks of exposure remain relatively high.
Endcoronavirus.org has state level data of which I have copied examples from May 11 below—the graphs display a rolling 10 day average.
Even better would be local data for your community. But, this can be hard to find. In my state of Washington, the state and county public websites do not publish this kind of daily case rate data in graphical displays so it is tough to interpret. I did find a report at Capitol Hill Seattle Blog. In that report, Seattle King County rates appear to be lower than last month but stuck in a plateau which is concerning. So, all of the state talk about reopening is of concern.
This goal of zero or near zero cases over two weeks is called Crushing the Curve which you can read more about at endcoronavirus.org. The source is Yaneer Bar-Yam who is an expert on pandemics and other complex systems and advises the WHO Global Outbreak and Alert Response Network on Ebola eradication. He was the co-author of a January paper with Nassim Nicholas Taleb (of Black Swan fame) which predicted what is happening now—the rapid spread of coronavirus—and recommended lockdowns for five weeks to drive daily case rates to zero.
Here is Bar-Yam’s most recent editorial from May 12 which I strongly recommend: Don't Let Governors Fool You About Reopening.
Crushing the Curve goes beyond just “flattening the curve” which is what most states are doing now. The latter approach leaves lingering higher case rates for many months. And this means that we can be assured there is more virus out there than is picked up in the data and that the risks of exposure remain relatively high.
Endcoronavirus.org has state level data of which I have copied examples from May 11 below—the graphs display a rolling 10 day average.
Even better would be local data for your community. But, this can be hard to find. In my state of Washington, the state and county public websites do not publish this kind of daily case rate data in graphical displays so it is tough to interpret. I did find a report at Capitol Hill Seattle Blog. In that report, Seattle King County rates appear to be lower than last month but stuck in a plateau which is concerning. So, all of the state talk about reopening is of concern.
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